Georgia's largest utility is proposing significant transmission upgrades. SACE is pushing for the Georgia Public Service Commission to "right-size" the investment for electric bills and support clean energy.

In an appearance before state regulators last month, Georgia Power – the state’s largest electric utility – proposed a set of what it called “Strategic Transmission Projects” to accommodate both new power plants and new energy customers in the coming years. In this standard proceeding, utilities share their Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) – a multi-year preview of how the utility will generate electricity, where it will flow, and who will pay for it. Strategic transmission planning is a welcome and necessary step for any utility.

SACE – along with a few other policy groups – asked Matthew Richwine of Telos Energy to examine Georgia Power’s proposed plans. The resulting findings were filed as part of the regulatory hearings, and included a few notable takeaways.

Major concerns about Georgia Power’s transmission plan:

1. Several of Georgia Power’s proposed transmission lines in north Georgia are only needed if new large loads connect to the grid. These loads are not yet part of the system, and if they fail to show up, then ratepayers will be footing a substantial bill for unused transmission.
2. Georgia Power is still operating two highly polluting and inefficient coal power plants, Bowen and Scherer. The utility has previously suggested these plants would be retired before 2030 because they are so expensive to run, but more recently has been unwilling to commit to that deadline. Telos’ analysis found that there is nothing in the planned transmission system that would require them to stay online.
3. Several projects in Georgia Power’s IRP support the use of solar in south Georgia to meet north Georgia’s energy needs, with limited strain for the grid.
4. Georgia Power is underestimating the value of solar panels combined with power storage, which may result in spending money on the wrong transmission lines.

Good transmission planning requires the input of many stakeholders and the balancing of a wide variety of costs, energy needs, and many other variables. Based on the analysis by experts at Telos, it seems Georgia Power’s plan is lacking in some important areas.

To avoid unpleasant surprises, SACE supports more transparency and better assumptions to get these large investments right and to save billpayers’ money, avoid blackouts, and avoid price shocks and other disruptions.

While these issues seem remote and wonky today, they could lead to customers getting shockingly high electric bills in the future, or having the lights go out at a key moment.

Some of Georgia Power’s load forecast is speculative

In 2023, Georgia Power announced unprecedented load growth driven mostly from large energy users, including data centers and advanced manufacturing. This was followed in 2024 by 7.3 gigawatts of new load formally requesting service, and over the next ten years, Georgia Power’s long-term economic development pipeline expects a total of 22.8 GW of new load. After requesting Georgia Power’s large load data over that planning period, Telos discovered that over 3.6 GW of load expected in 2034 is not tied to a specific location. In other words, the utility is betting this demand for electricity will materialize, but has no idea where. How confident can we be that it will definitely appear?

It’s important not to over- or under-react to electricity load projections. Transmission lines take years to plan, site, permit, and build, and it would be foolish to wait until the system is over-taxed to start that process. But at the same time, Georgia Power’s standard for what constitutes real supply and demand seems inconsistent. Prior IRPs have asserted that power plants from third-party developers must be nearly finished before their electric supply can be included in the transmission plan, but it’s a much weaker standard to include still-uncertain large demand sites in the load forecast.

In an environment of growing electricity demand, not only will the grid require new investments, but the metrics utilities used to evaluate where to invest must also evolve. Georgia Power should follow industry practices such as:

1. Clearly identify which transmission projects are for new electric load
2. Use a benchmark: approve these transmission upgrades and timing upon a large customer’s site selection, interconnection agreement, or construction milestone
3. Be prepared for surprises: continue quarterly updates from large loads and add update requirements as needed

Transmission projects are not a barrier to retiring Bowen and Scherer coal plants by 2031

In the 2022 IRP, Georgia Power expected to retire most coal units by 2028: Two units at Plant Bowen and two at Plant Scherer, leaving two units running at Plant Bowen in 2029. The largest barrier to retiring Bowen and Scherer before 2028 was building additional transmission to supply northern Georgia with power generated in the south instead of relying on these two coal plants. Georgia Power’s 2025 IRP states that all transmission needed to replace these coal plants will be in service by 2029, but continues to include Bowen and Scherer in their planning through 2034. This is strong evidence that Georgia Power’s continued inclusion of these plants is to meet load from new large customers. If this load does not show up, there is no reason for Georgia Power to not retire Bowen and Scherer by 2031.

Georgia Power’s strategic transmission enhances the role of solar power in the energy transition

Six transmission projects in the IRP were identified by Telos as supporting additional renewable energy from solar farms in south Georgia to meet growing demand in the north. When these transmission lines come into service, there will be 7.2 GW of new solar within Georgia Power’s system by 2030. Solar power functions differently than large fossil fuel power plants – it is much more dispersed across different locations, meaning the electricity it puts into the wires causes less disruption (like adding water to a stream in many small drops instead of in one giant bucket). Thus, this new solar contributes to the energy transition with limited strain for the grid.

Georgia Power should improve its precision when accounting for solar and batteries in its planning.

Unfortunately, and despite the benefits of solar in Georgia’s IRP, Telos’ analysis also shows that the utility makes incorrect assumptions regarding when solar and storage are available. Georgia power uses this as justification to overbuild gas and keep dirty coal plants open. It also risks ignoring transmission investments where they are truly needed. One particularly problematic assumption Georgia Power made was that battery storage only draws electricity from the grid; this is half true, batteries provide that electricity back to the grid when it is needed. Discharging batteries during peak demand can offset the need for additional generation. Modeling batteries in more than one mode is more complicated, but is a best practice for planning a grid in the modern era. For comparison, the transmission system operated in neighboring states, MISO, has established a methodology for modeling battery energy storage systems in transmission planning studies, providing grid support in all scenarios.

Recommendations

Given these areas for improvement, SACE recommends that the Commission direct Georgia Power to do the following:

1. Clearly mark which transmission project support which electricity needs
2. Wait to approve new transmission projects until the associated load growth has reached key interconnection and construction milestones
3. Plan for batteries and solar based on their real world support of the grid

Get involved

Review all of the testimony SACE, with our co-intervenors NRDC and Sierra Club, submitted on Georgia Power’s IRP, and a previous blog that highlights the potential costs that could be put on customers’ bills if this planning is not done right. This IRP, and the Georgia Power rate case that will start this summer, give Georgians the information they will need to vote on two members of the Public Service Commission this November.

Telos will testify for SACE at the Georgia Public Service Commission the week of May 27. We encourage everyone to tune in live on the PSC’s YouTube Channel.