Interestingly, this problematic court ruling comes on the heels of a recent EPA proposal in July to regulate SO2 and NOx. The EPA Interstate Transport Rule was discussed recently in another posting on this blog. Generally, the rule is designed to limit pollution emitted in an upwind state from blowing across state lines and contaminating the air in downwind states. To accomplish this goal, EPA is establishing emission budgets for individual states and individual pollutants. These budgets are then broken down into pollution allowances, which are distributed to individual generating units. The units may trade their allowances, but EPA will probably only permit trading within an individual state.
The SO2 budget set for Tennessee is limited to 100,007 tons per year starting in 2012. This amount will be a decrease of 115,799 tons, or 54%, from Tennessee’s average SO2 emissions over the past five years. Tennessee’s NOx budget will be limited to 28,362 tons per year also starting in 2012, causing a decrease to 56,157 tons per year, or 66% from the five year average.
The John Sevier plant emitted 20, 316 tons of SO2 in 2009 (the most recent fully reported year) and 5,573 tons of NOx. Both of these figures are just a fraction of the total necessary reductions and they demonstrate that even though TVA could trade emissions across its Tennessee or its Alabama plants, they will still have a big task in reaching the needed reductions. Alabama will need to reduce SO2 by 237,734 tons (60%) and NOx by 39,080 tons (36%). Widows Creek units 1-6, those potentially exposed to retirement by the 2009 trial court decision, emit a collective total of 5,555 tons of SO2 in 2009 and and 2,120 of NOx, showing that Alabama has as far to go as Tennessee.
These are impressive reductions – if they happen – but the EPA’s Transport Rule is not guaranteed yet. First, the rule is only proposed and not yet officially law. Promulgation is expected in spring of 2011, but the final rule may not look exactly like the present proposal. Second, the Transport Rule is based on an emissions trading scheme. Trading does lead to statewide reductions, but it gives North Carolina nowhere near the certainty it had under the court ruling. While the WNC District court decision put specific pressures on already vulnerable plants, the Transport Rule allows TVA to spread the impact thinly across a state, potentially protecting plants like John Sevier and Widows Creek.
Nonetheless, while new and planned upgrades will get TVA part of the way to the Transport Rule goals, the new limits it sets will create a real challenge for TVA to meet. TVA should not only stick with their potential retirements, but ought to also target their older, inefficient, and most costly plants, such as the Johnsonville facility in Middle Tennessee or the Colbert plant in northwest Alabama.
The 4th Circuit Court of Appeals decision undermines TVA’s plans and North Carolina’s certainty for clean air, as it throws a wrench in region-wide energy planning. The ruling also jeopardizes a number of other nuisance-based lawsuits currently underway. But coal operators in the Southeast, and especially TVA, should not forget that the new EPA Transport Rule sets a high standard for clean air and interstate pollution, and that TVA in particular might well be advised to continue down the path set by the North Carolina v. TVA trial court in 2009.